Match Preview: The Whitecaps Go Looking for Road Win #4 Against the Red Bulls

It’s MLS match-day eleven! And the Vancouver Whitecaps (5-1-2) are still undefeated on the road! Saturday’s match will truly put that record to the test, as the ‘Caps travel cross-continent to take on the second-place team in the East, the New York Red Bulls (4-4-1).

Match Information

Where: Red Bull Arena, Harrison, NJ
When: Saturday, April 27th at 4:30 pm PST
How: Apple TV (Streaming), AM730 (Radio)

I know, I keep droning on about how Vancouver is still undefeated on the road. If you’re a Whitecaps fan and you’re reading this, I doubt a “VWFC Away Form” history lesson is really necessary to drive home the point. But you know what? We’re doing one anyway.

Here’s how long it took the Whitecaps to secure three away in wins in previous seasons (followed by their overall away record):

• 2023 – 11 matches (4-6-8)
• 2022 – n/a (2-4-11)
• 2021 – n/a (2-10-6)
• 2019 – 17 matches (3-5-9)
• 2018 – 8 matches (6-3-8)
• 2017 – 9 matches (6-2-10)

I skipped the COVID year in 2020 because I think we can agree it’s not the best sample of data.

That said, to be fair to the ‘Caps, away teams in MLS generally do not win. The amount of travel is largely brutal; that’s why it’s always fun to joke about the equivalent EPL teams would face. Manchester United going to play Trabzonspor or Dynamo Kyiv every other weekend would be a hoot.

Again, it should be a big deal that the Whitecaps already own three away wins before we’re even close to the summer. Normally, we’d be waiting until July before we hit that number.

But believe it or not, in no way am I getting ahead of myself: it’s a long season, things change, yadda, yadda, yadda. However, this milestone is certainly significant from a performance standpoint and there’s no reason why Vancouver can’t escape from Jersey with another W (or at least a single point).

All-time, the Whitecaps are 3-5-2 against RBNY and are 2-2-1 at Red Bull Arena. If you ask me, those are some pretty stats that suggest the ‘Caps will be leaving New Jersey with at least a point and that 2024 undefeated road record still in tact.

What Happened Last Time?

Has it really been five years since the Whitecaps and Red Bulls last played? Well, nearly five years. When Vancouver and RBNY kick off on Saturday, it will have been 4 years, 11 months, and 5 days since the teams last played.

I’m fairly certain the relevance a game from half a decade will have on this Saturday afternoon is basically nil, but let’s recap it anyway!

Scott Sutter opened the scoring in the 29th minute, going top cheese off a cross from Joaquin Ardaiz.

The Red Bulls were able to equalize just eight minutes later, thanks to a redirected header from… Brian White? Really??

Andy Rose would be the one to break the deadlock at 55′ but in the worst way possible, deflecting a cross from White past Zac MacMath for an own goal.

But that wouldn’t be the end for Vancouver, however. One VAR review & a Fredy Montero PK conversion later, and the Whitecaps would hold on for a 2-2 draw.

Who’s Starting?

There’s one suspension for each team to report. RBNY defender Andres Reyes will be serving his second game of a two-match ban for this whack to the face of Tobias Salquist.

Our Andrés (Cubas, that is) is also suspended, after that late yellow in Seattle, he reached the threshold for an accumulation suspension.

As for injuries, only one Whitecap is listed as questionable, as Fafà Picault is still recovering from his back injury.

Potential Vancouver Lineup – Takaoka; Blackmon, Veselinovic, Laborda; Schopf, Berhalter, Vite, Adekugbe; Ahmed, White, Gauld.

RBNY will be without the services of a number of players this weekend. Currently listed as Out on the MLS Injury Report are Ronald Donkor (hip), Roald Mitchell (knee), Serge Ngoma (knee), and Peter Stroud (ankle).

To be fair, the only player the Red Bulls may be missing is Stroud; the four others have played less than one-sixth the minutes Stroud has in 2024.

Potential NY Red Bulls Lineup – Coronel; Tolkin, Elie, S. Nealis, D. Nealis; Forsberg, Amaya, Edeleman, Gjengaar; Morgan, Vanzeir.

What’s Up With The Enemy?

Going off their record and results alone it’s hard to tell, but it’s certainly been enough to currently hold second place in the Eastern Conference.

RBNY have been held goalless by the swiss cheese defenses of Nashville and Chicago, but won at traditionally hostile parks in Cincinnati and Houston. They followed up a three-goal shellacking from the champs in Columbus by hanging four on a Messi-less Miami.

Nevertheless, they’re unbeaten in five and have lost only once this season, so make of those individual results all you want. The trick may be to get a vibe on the current RBNY style of play.

In his analyses this season, Matt Doyle has pointed out the Red Bulls’ commitment to defending deep in their own end and that when chances come, the intent is quality over quantity. Or, as coach Sandro Schwarz put it, to avoid “a tremendous number of crosses” that could be dispatched easily.

What does that mean for Vancouver? It’s highly likely that New York will not run up the score, but they won’t let Vancouver do so either.

Who’s Worth Watching?

Lewis Morgan and/or Dante Vanzeir

I’m going to keep this real simple. Lewis Morgan has six goals and Dante Vanzeir has six assists.

If the backline can’t keep an eye on this two-headed monster fronting the RBNY attack (while maybe keeping Emil Forsberg in their peripheral vision, just to be safe), then that undefeated Vancouver away record I keep going on and on about will be a thing of the past.

Kind of Related & Kind of Hilarious

Whenever it comes to the Whitecaps & Red Bulls, my mind always goes back to Kenny Miller and TV commentary of the sour grapes variety.

The year was 2013 and the New York Red Bulls were at the onset of their dynasty. By “dynasty,” I mean the first of three Supporters Shields that usually ended in early playoff exits.

But you could tell the mid-2010s hubris was just ramping up for RBNY. Watch what Miller was able to do & listen to the immediate reaction from color commentator Shep Messing:

For those not willing to watch a video, you’re missing out on a Miller header in the 83rd-minute, off a cross from a mohawked Russell Teibert, to seal a 2-1 road win in Harrison.

That elicited the following quote from Shep:

“We talked about Kenny Miller. He’s been useless for about a year and a half, but the man knows how to score goals.”

Yikes, tell me you’re mad you lost at home to a team that’s only been around for two and a half years without telling me you’re mad.

There’s a reason we rip on Shep whenever we get the chance. The North Remembers.

Who’s Going To Win?

As mentioned earlier, the 2024 New York Red Bulls don’t appear to be end-to-end adrenaline junkies. They’re the exact opposite of both Los Angeles teams.

They boast the fourth-lowest Progressive Carries & Progressive Passes in the league; are just a little better (sixth-lowest) in Passing Attempts and Completions; and are at the top of the bottom third in xG.

So what do the Red Bulls do well? Defend, defend, defend.

They draw a lot of fouls, intercept a lot of passes, make a lot of clearances, and don’t make any egregious errors. In fact, RBNY are the only MLS squad in 2024 to not give up an error that leads to an opponent shot.

To me, that means they’re patient and calculating, hence the league-worst 40.8% average possession. And they’re going up against a Vancouver team that, so far in 2024, likes to sit back and be patient and calculating?

It’s entirely possible that Saturday’s match will be an old school staring contest. Whoever blinks first loses.

That’s why this one will likely end in a draw. Not 0-0 though; we want goals and every right to demand them. Instead, I’m thinking Vancouver will get one early off the boot of, oh, I don’t know, a certain New Jersey native and former Red Bull, before conceding a late goal to end the match with a 1-1 scoreline.

Officials

Referee: Mark Allatin; AR1: Ryan Graves; AR2: Kevin Klinger; 4th: Calin Radosav; VAR: Sorin Stoica; AVAR: Joshua Patlak.