Manchester City are favorites to defeat Tottenham Hotspur at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday, with the Opta supercomputer assigning Pep Guardiola’s side a 46.9% chance of victory.

Across 10,000 pre-match simulations, Tottenham were victorious in just 28.7% of scenarios, with the remaining 24.4% seeing the points shared. The prediction reflects City’s superior quality despite their recent struggles on the road and Tottenham’s historically strong record against Guardiola.

Remarkably, Guardiola has lost more league games against Spurs than any other opponent in his managerial career, suffering eight defeats including the reverse fixture at the Etihad Stadium in August. On that occasion, goals from Brennan Johnson and João Palhinha late in the first half secured a 2-0 victory for Thomas Frank‘s side.

Thomas Frank and Pep Guardiola

Tottenham could complete their 10th Premier League double over Manchester City, with only Chelsea having achieved the feat against the Citizens 10 times. Spurs’ nine Premier League doubles against City already represent their most against any opponent in the competition’s history.

However, form suggests City should prevail comfortably. Thomas Frank has earned just 0.82 points per home Premier League game in charge of Tottenham, the worst such record of any Spurs boss in...